IDC forecasts a sharp 11.3% decline in global PC shipments in 2026 compared to the previous year. The core issue is a persistent memory shortage that is expected to last until at least the end of 2027. This structural constraint, combined with macroeconomic pressure and platform changes, will create turbulence in the second half of the year.
Memory shortage to persist through 2027
The forecast covers the entire PC market, including desktops, notebooks, and workstations. A significant variable is the launch of Apple's MacBook Neo, which is boosting laptop demand but putting pressure on competitors. IDC expects vendors to respond with new chips, more efficient Microsoft operating systems, and aggressive promotional pricing.
Average notebook selling prices are projected to rise 17% in 2026. The memory shortage is the primary driver, as DRAM and NAND supply constraints increase component costs. IDC notes that there is no quick fix for the supply situation, and the shortage will persist through 2027.
The PC market faces structural supply constraints beyond memory. Macroeconomic headwinds, including inflation and reduced consumer spending, are also dampening demand. Platform changes, such as the transition to new processor architectures, add further uncertainty.
IDC research manager Jitesh Ubrani stated that the MacBook Neo launch is putting tangible pressure on the entire PC ecosystem. He expects vendors to counter with new chips, more efficient operating systems from Microsoft, and aggressive pricing. These responses aim to maintain market share in a shrinking market.
The forecast confirms a challenging period for PC makers. With memory shortages and economic pressures persisting, the market is unlikely to recover until at least 2028. Buyers should expect higher prices and fewer deals in the near term.
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