DRAM NAND Prices Peak Mid-2024 as Chinese Vendors Expand Capacity

Analysts predict that global DRAM and NAND flash prices will peak around the middle of 2024, arriving earlier than previous forecasts had suggested for late 2027. This accelerated timeline shifts market expectations for memory manufacturers and storage component suppliers.

Chinese memory makers double output pushing prices down starting early next year

The shift stems from aggressive capacity expansion plans by Chinese memory makers ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) and Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC). These vendors intend to roughly double their production output over the next one to two years, fundamentally altering supply dynamics.

Market data shows YMTC already captured a 13 percent share of global NAND flash shipments in the first quarter. This positions the company just behind Kioxia at 14 percent and ties with Micron for third place globally. CXMT holds approximately 7.7 percent of the worldwide DRAM market, ranking fourth overall.

Prices are expected to begin declining month over month starting early next year as this new capacity comes online. The increased supply from Chinese vendors will likely suppress average selling prices across both DRAM and NAND categories. Memory manufacturers previously relied on high margins during shortage cycles, but those conditions appear unsustainable given the current expansion trajectory.

A recent report about NVIDIA reducing memory capacity in its Rubin server chassis also weighs on major suppliers. The chassis design reportedly cut LPDDR5X memory requirements from 55 terabytes down to 28 terabytes. This change negatively impacted stock prices for Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron.

Chinese vendors are driving the current market correction through deliberate expansion rather than organic demand growth. Analysts warn that the era of outsized profits for traditional memory makers will end as supply catches up with demand. The mid-year price peak represents a temporary high before broader downward pressure takes effect.