DDR5 Surge of 414% to End Soon: Former Samsung Chip President Says Chinese DRAM Expansion Will Drive Prices Down Next Year

DDR5 memory prices have surged 414% since last summer, but a former Samsung chip president predicts the trend will reverse in the second half of 2026. The expected price inflection is tied to the expansion of Chinese DRAM production capacity.

CXMT's new Shanghai fab to triple capacity

ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) is building a new fab in Shanghai with two to three times the capacity of its Hefei base. Mass production at the new facility is scheduled for 2027. CXMT launched 8000MT/s DDR5 products in November 2024, offering 16Gb and 24Gb die capacities. According to Kyung Kye-hyun, CXMT's DDR5 products are in the first tier alongside SK Hynix and Samsung.

Chinese brands including Shenke, Guangwei, and Jinyinda have already released domestic DDR5 memory since the end of 2024. Kyung Kye-hyun cited market research indicating that global DRAM wafer monthly capacity may climb to 6 million wafers by the second half of 2027.

Kyung Kye-hyun also warned that AI capital expenditure returns may decline after 2028, potentially causing demand contraction. The exact timing of the price inflection remains uncertain, as it depends on the pace of Chinese capacity expansion.