NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang suggests China could reach advanced semiconductor manufacturing milestones by 2030. This timeline is significant as it outlines the period for global chip export controls and supply chain stability. Buyers and investors should monitor how this potential shift affects GPU availability and pricing in Asian markets.
UBS offers a more conservative timeline for domestic chip manufacturing progress
Huang made these comments during an interview on The All-In Podcast. He stated that China has the potential to reach that specific production point by the year 2030. This optimistic view contrasts with more conservative industry assessments regarding the technical hurdles involved.
UBS provides a detailed breakdown of the timeline for Chinese lithography development. The bank estimates China may achieve mass production of emerging DUV systems within two to five years. However, UBS considers the likelihood of developing EUV equipment within the next decade to be low. They compare China's current capabilities to ASML's position around 2004.
Huawei is actively supporting domestic suppliers like Shanghai-based Yuliangsheng to build advanced DUV equipment. The company plans to produce 12 systems by late 2026. Meanwhile, China completed an EUV prototype in early 2025 at a secure facility in Shenzhen. This prototype has not yet produced working chips due to precision optics barriers.
Sources indicate China aims to produce working chips using its EUV system by 2028. Most observers consider 2030 a more realistic target for full production capability. We touched on China bans Nvidia RTX 5090D V2 in our earlier Nvidia coverage while tracking these regional restrictions.
The confirmed facts show a divergence between executive optimism and engineering reality. Huang projects a 2030 milestone for mass production. UBS and technical reports highlight significant remaining barriers for EUV development. The industry will observe whether domestic suppliers can meet these ambitious targets.
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